This year the match up is not quite as large, simply because Syracuse just took part in a game of that nature in their narrow loss to Pittsburgh on Monday night. However, the lack of publicity is alarming because these are still two top 10 teams, and probably going to be earning a three seed at the lowest if they continue the way they have started the season. Further to that point, how big would this game be if both teams had won on Monday? The two of them lost to two top 10 teams, respectable losses for sure with both being on the road as well, so this is still a huge top 10 match up between the two. Let's give it the recognition it deserves.Now if Syracuse has Kris Joseph back that will help them a lot in their hopes of winning to
day and getting back on track. Other than that there are a few keys for victory. They have to feed it down low to Rick Jackson. They simply did not do that enough against Pittsburgh, where to start the second half he was unstoppable, and they seemingly went away from it. If they can get it to Jackson and he can get Villanova big man Mouphtaou Yarou in foul trouble it will really help the Orange control the paint and the boards.They have to make sure that they play aggressive defense, because when the zone is active and aggressive they force that many more tough shots, and get run outs and into transition off of turnovers where they are one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They also have to have Jim Boeheim not be slow with the trigger in putting Jackson in the middle of the zone and going smaller, but quicker and more athletic, and making the zone a lot more solid down low.
Finally, they have to not take bad shots. The defense of Villanova will be aggressive and in their faces, they have to not rush on the offensive end. If Syracuse is able to take good shots and find the open man, then they will be able to score the ball regularly and rely on the zone for the win. Syracuse has the better team, and their defense should be able to contain Villanova, who lost their best player against the zone from last year Scottie Reynolds to graduation.
For Villanova to win they have to shoot the ball well. They are deadly from outside, and if they are able to get Corey Fisher going, or Corey Stokes, then they will be able to shoot over the top of the zone and make it difficult for Syracuse to cut off those passing angles into the nooks and crannies of the zone.
They need Antonio Pena to really step up and play big. If you were to assume that Yarou and Jackson could play themselves to a stand still on the boards, give Jackson a slight edge, then Pena has to come in and really help on the glass. He also has to be that guy at the foul line that is so vital to the zone. If he is able to make the right passes from that spot, and turn around and hit a 14-17 foot jumper, then they will be able to again attack the zone in a much more aggressive fashion than most.
Finally, the before mentioned Stokes has to find open shots, and
get up transition threes. As possibly the league's most deadly shooter, currently just below 44% from behind the arc, they rely on him to get open and hit big shots. His transition threes have been killers over the years for opposing teams, and a few of those before the zone sets up is how they will be able to pull off the upset at a raucous dome.I think Jackson is too much down low, and the zone is able to get out on the shooters to disrupt them enough to build an early lead for Syracuse to hold onto. The zone is what will win them another game.
Syracuse 78 Villanova 71
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