This weekend is full of rematches, and in the AFC there are two rubber matches, and it all gets kicked off with the most intriguing game of the weekend with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Pittsburgh to meet up yet again with the Steelers.
Arguably the best rivalry in the past decade in the NFL, these two teams aren't really separated by that much within the rivalry. In their 17 meetings since 2003 the Steelers hold the slightest of edges 9-8, and in those games they have each scored 302 points. Just this year the Ravens won the week four matchup 17-14, and Pittsburgh then came back and won the rematch 13-10.
These teams are so evenly matched, and even in terms of personnel, it is a little eerie. They each have quarterbacks that have shown they can win in the playoffs, dual threat running backs, a standout defense that has play making safeties and top tier linebackers, and young ambitious coaches. Two teams, two organizations, so evenly matched where do they grab the upper hand?
The Steelers know where to turn when they need a big play, a big drive, a big game, and that is to Ben Roethlisberger. He has been able to prove time and again that when it is needed he will come through and make a play (just ask the Arizona Cardinals). While Joe Flacco has done well in road playoff games, he has struggled with the Steelers, and has not won a game in which Roethlisberger has started. That is an advantage, a huge one, that the Steelers come in with.
Then again, the Ravens have an advantage of their own, wears number 27, Ray Rice. Though he struggled in both match ups between the two this year, Rice amassed nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Getting Rice going will be a big factor for the Ravens in ball control, and Rice will also be very active in the passing game. In the Wildcard playoff match up with the Kansas City Chiefs Flacco consistently checked down to Rice, averaging over eight yards a catch and scored a touchdown. Though there are reports that Rice currently has a stomach virus, something to certainly keep watch of.
This game is sure to be one that is close throughout, and whoever makes a play late is most likely to come away with the victory. So who do I see coming away with the win? Frankly, I think whoever has the safety who makes more plays. Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu are hands down the two best safeties in the game, both great playmakers, so it comes down to who will make more for their team in a game that will probably be a defensive battle.
I think that Roethlisberger will win the quarterback battle, end up between 200 and 250 yards and a touchdown, with Flacco throwing an interception along the way for the Ravens. Rice will struggle running the ball because the Steelers will probably want Flacco to try and beat them, but Rice should be active out of the backfield and help the Ravens move the ball to get points on the board.
My prediction, Steelers win the game 20-16 and move onto the AFC Championship. Big Ben is able to control the tempo as they see fit, and the Ravens are playing from behind early. Neither team will be running away with it at any point, instead it is nip and tuck like always given that Rice does play and is at near full strength. Would you expect anything less though between the two?
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