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Back in October, before this season started, Connecticut and Butler were in nobody's minds as to whether or not they had a chance to be playing on April 4, 2011. That is because the answer was a no from everyone besides people in that school or fan base. Butler was still a small school in Indiana, up the road from Indianapolis, who had lost their best player, and was starting a guys that had most likely been shown no interest by the college basketball power conferences. Connecticut was a team full of freshman, couple sophomores, senior here and there that is not a major contributor, and Kemba Walker, who was a good player but not elite at this point in his career. Then the season started.
As Butler's season started they struggled, they lost to Louisville, Evansville, Duke, and Xavier before putting together a win streak. Then came more losses though, this time to Milwaukee, Wright State, and three in a row to Milwaukee, Valparaiso, and Youngstown State. They were 14-9, in a three game losing streak, no longer with Gordon Hayward, and definitely not looking towards Houston. Then they turned it around and are currently in the midst of a 14 game winning streak. Butler doing it all over again.
The Connecticut season began and followed a much different curve. They entered the season unranked, unheralded, and underappreciated. They went to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational at 2-0, but with two mediocre wins, and teams still were not fearing the Huskies. Then they proceeded to beat the now newly crowned NIT Champion Wichita State, then number two Michigan State, and destroy Kentucky while Kemba burst onto the scene averaging 30 points a game in the tournament. They rocketed up to number four in the rankings and knocked off 10 in a row. Unfortunately for them then came league play, and they lost their first Big East game of the year to Pittsburgh, and they would go on to go only 9-9 in the league. During that stretch though they continued to dominate the out of conference, beating the likes of Tennessee and Texas (at Texas), and remain in the top 15 for a good chunk of that slide during the Big East regular season. Then came the Big East tournament and they began the Kemba Walker show all over again, pulling off the unprecedented and unbelievable five wins in five nights.
The tournament has consisted of different runs for the two as well, Butler has had three games decided by three points or less of the five played, and all five have been by eight points or less. They won on last second shots, last second free throws, in overtime, and by just holding on. Butler has forced their way back, by just being a tough, rugged, never say die team. Connecticut has sort of started out big and come back close in a way, beginning the tournament on that high from the Big East Tournament and winning game one by 29 points, and game two by 11. The margins of victory have gotten smaller and smaller though, as game three they won by seven, their Elite Eight match up with Arizona by two, and then Saturday outlasting Kentucky by one.
Yes, the paths to get here have been completely different from the two teams that really do not share too many similarities, except they have each gone 5-0 thus far in the 2011 NCAA Tournament. Only one will be cutting down the nets in Houston, and either way, back in October people would have said you were nuts if you chose that team as the eventual National Champions.
Preview and Picking the Winner
We know what happened the first time these two teams met back in November, Kemba Walker took over and the Connecticut Huskies blew Kentucky away from start to finish. Going into last night many believed it would be completely different, different teams, different game, maybe a different outcome. At halftime it seemed like it was going down the same road as Connecticut was up 10, but then again West Virginia was up eight at halftime against the Wildcats and they came out on fire to take control against the Mountaineers. Well the same thing happened last night, coming out red hot from behind the arc, and suddenly it was a different game and Kentucky did have the momentum. Then you know who, Kemba, made a big shot and got fouled on a three for free throws, and that is what changed the game.
The second half was a great half of basketball, as the two continued throughout to get hit, maybe stumble a little, and then come and hit right back. While the stars of this game performed, it was more about the role players that one this one tonight. Kemba and Brandon Knight each had 18 and 17 points respectively, Terrence Jones stepped up early and late while having a rough middle of the game but came away with 15 rebounds to go along with 11 points, and Jeremy Lamb again had 12 points despite his worst shooting effort of the tournament from three missing both attempts.
This game though was all about Kentucky having guys not show up, and Connecticut did. Though Doron Lamb stepped in to the lineup in the second half and provided a great lift, knocking down three shots from deep, the other factors they had become to rely on did not do what they needed. Josh Harrellson was in foul trouble and was only able to contribute six points and a measly four rebounds. DeAndre Liggins who was in some respects the hero against North Carolina went 1-7 from the field, and missed the late three point attempt for the lead with five seconds left. Lastly Darius Miller also only went 1-7 from the floor for four points, and was more of a detriment for the Wildcats. When only six of your players get eight or more minutes you can not have three of them struggle like this and expect to win.
For Connecticut they were able to have other players step up, like Roscoe Smith having six points and eight rebounds, including a huge baseline turnaround that came in a spot where they needed a bucket badly. Alex Oriakhi stepped up and 10 rebounds, one a huge dunk put back of a Shabazz Napier miss late in the second half. Charles Okwandu made a big block in the first half to ignite a run, and added in a couple of dunks with great cuts to the hoop. Lastly, Napier only had one basket, but that basket came with 2:28 left to put the Huskies up six on a beautiful reverse layup around two defenders. Though Napier then turned the ball over for Liggins to get that late shot that he missed, he then got that rebound and made both free throws to put Connecticut up four and seal the victory.
Now the Huskies role players made their mistakes, and guys like Harrellson and Liggins had their moments where they made a big bucket or a defensive stop. The overall impact by the two sides, and the reason they got the win, was because as a complete package it was Connecticut's "other guys" that came through when was necessary, and the is why they are 40 minutes away from being the last team standing.
A lot of the talk this week has been in regards to the fact that two mid-majors have made it to the Final Four, little Butler has made it to its second straight, and VCU has laughed at all the naysayers in defeating five of the six power conferences. Then there has been a little talk of Kentucky and Connecticut meeting in the night cap. The two met back in Maui, or as it should now be known as the Kemba Walker coming-out-party invitational (KWCOPI if you will), when Connecticut was up 21 at the half, and won by double-digits. The game that day in Hawaii was not close, but both of these teams are not even close to where they were then, they have grown by leaps and bounds the both of them. The only thing that is the same, well still better, is Walker and his play.
For Kentucky to win this game they need a few things to happen, first off they need Brandon Knight to not necessarily cancel out Kemba, but hold his own. That does not mean he has to score a lot of points, but he has to make Kemba work on defense, not give him open looks when Connecticut is on offense, and he has to knock down a few shots. They need to make a decision, whether they are going to let Kemba get his and try and shut everyone else down, or if they are going to take Kemba away, or at least try to. If they decide to shut down Jeremy Lamb this might be their best bet, because when talking Lamb away then you are taking away easily the second best player the second half of this year. Lamb is killing teams this post season, and if he is taken away then Connecticut will be relying on less proven commodities. They need Terrence Jones to really step up and demand that basketball. He is a force to reckon with, and can score from anywhere, they need to get him aggressive and looking to win this game. If Jones gets going then Kentucky becomes an extremely tough team to stop.
Connecticut has to make sure they do one thing, keep Kemba and Lamb going. If the two of them continue on their pace then they should be just fine, because those two can put up 50 points between them easily. Their team defense has to be strong, but not foul. They can have great team defense, but then towards the end of a shot clock they will foul, or they will foul in the middle of team slides, and it ruins their depth and aggressiveness. They need to make sure they rebound the ball, because they should be able to control the boards with their athletes and the type of active players that they have, including Kemba being one of the better rebounding guards in the nation. They should win the boards, and that should go a long way in this game.
This game should be great, with both Knight and Kemba able to go back and forth at one another. Lamb should be able to control the baseline on offense, and give a guy like DeAndre Liggins fits with the constant movement and screens. Jones has to demand the ball, but the Wildcats also have to realize they need to give him the ball. It should be tight throughout, with Kentucky able to take control midway through the second half with some hot shooting from the perimeter. Kemba is just too much though, and he refuses to lose. He comes up huge in a late run and the Huskies continue their romp through the end of the season, and make a date for Monday night with perhaps Cinderella.
Connecticut 79 Kentucky 74